Stinson Analytical is guided by a number of fundamental principles.
1
There exists, beneath the constant motion of dynamic markets, a clarifying economic order that has not been adequately explored or articulated.
The analytical failure has three sources:
- a lack of attention to the foundations, usually in the rush to apply superficially precise or sophisticated analytical techniques or to draw what appear to be “obvious” conclusions;
- a retreat to what is perceived to be the safety of data and empirical analysis in the hope that ultimately the “facts will speak for themselves”, something that never happens, especially in complex and ever-changing dynamic markets;
- an emphasis on the needs of the state (i.e., the implications for policy or regulation), not on understanding market forces or aiding decision-making by market participants.
The result is a vast sea of fragmented and highly specialized analysis with limited strategic usefulness. The limiting assumptions or conditions, and thus narrow scope, that often encumber mathematical analysis contribute to this inflexibility, as does the fact that empirical analysis is ultimately descriptive, not explanatory. A more fundamental, well integrated and useful understanding is Stinson Analytical’s goal.
2
A sound understanding of this underlying market order will be a source of enduring competitive advantage and commercial value. With clarity also come the side benefits of speed, coherence, confidence and economy.
Clarity of understanding, or synthesis, remains elusive and scarce, mostly because few actually seek it. But its economic life is long and its value durable. Due to its fundamental nature, it is of widespread relevance and flexible application – necessities for decision-making that is coherent over time and across different projects or markets. It permits faster and more confident decision-making. It guides decision-makers and researchers to an informed, cost-effective and targeted use of further analysis or data. Perhaps best of all, it allows our customers to filter out that vast majority of analysis and commentary that confuses, misleads, overwhelms, distracts and otherwise burdens their competitors.
3
Data-driven or empirical analyses, while indispensable for many aspects of business operations, are continuously outdated, potentially unreliable, descriptive (at best) but not explanatory, unavoidably backward-looking and either widely available or easily duplicated. They cannot therefore be the foundation of clarity, synthesis, coherent strategy, sound and forward-looking policy or enduring competitive advantage. Only what is scarce, durable and robustly explanatory can. That is what Stinson Analytical seeks.
- Many elements of economic or market phenomena that are relevant to understanding market dynamics cannot be directly observed or quantified.
- Economic or market data are almost unavoidably (and often unwittingly) proxies for reality rather than a “factual” depiction of it. “Measurement” is itself often a process of estimation.
- The fact that economic data is frequently subject to future revision makes it clear that the original values were not “facts” but rather estimates. By definition, facts cannot be subject to revision.
- Data in dynamic markets are by their nature continuously outdated and their economic usefulness short-lived.
- The costs of determining the reliability of data or numerical estimates that you yourself are not responsible for collecting or producing is often either prohibitively high or practically impossible (due, for example, to lack of transparency) .
- Even where everything needed can be observed and reliably quantified, empirical analysis is ultimately only descriptive, not explanatory.
- Data and empirical analyses cannot be considered even remotely scarce. The world is drowning in supposed “facts“ and “data” and related quantitative analysis, most of it widely available or easily duplicated by one’s competitors.
4
Complexity is a sign of confusion, not understanding. Clarity and truth are orderly.
5
Consensus is neither a guarantee of truth nor a source of competitive advantage.
6
Customers should be in a position to verify or assess our work, simply by virtue of having read and understood it. We rely on no “black boxes” or proprietary models. Our work is self-contained.
7
Research should not merely be a consumable of temporary value, as is so often the case. It should be an asset with a long life and inform many decisions.
8
Only research that is an input to the customer’s own decision-making process (and not a substitute for it) can provide a competitive advantage.
Our customers will always know more about the specifics of their business than any consultant or adviser possibly can. Our contribution is not to tell our customers what to do this month, this quarter or this year. Rather, we equip them with a superior understanding of networks and markets that, combined with their “local” knowledge or analysis, can yield something completely unique. Research that replaces the client’s own decision-making, strategic or analytical processes can only yield a generic result and thus, by definition, cannot be a source of competitive advantage.